ANÁLISIS DE LAS PROSPECTIVAS DEL SECTOR DEL GAS NATURAL EN MÉXICO

Abstract

This study aims to determine the precision degree of the prospects of the Secretary of Energy, in matter of natural gas in our country. For this, first we performed a prospective analysis of global energy issues, by three internationally recognized institutions, which are: the energy company ExxonMobil, the International Energy Agency belonging to the OECD and the Energy Information Administration of government United States, to determine the behavior of future global trends in supply and demand of energy, population and economic growth. After this, an analysis of Mexico’s national natural gas market was realized, which allowed, to identify the characteristics, variables, and needs of our country in matter of this hydrocarbon. Later to concentrate, in the analysis of the projections realized in the SENER, from the 2001 to the 2009, allowing comparing the variables and behaviors of the supply and it demands in our country. In order to conclude a statistic analysis to the forecasts from the 2001 to the 2006 took place, by means of the use of the polynomial regression and construction of confidence intervals, which allowed, determining with a level of confidence of 95% that the forecasts are considered like non reliable. With base to this result, a series of proposals sets out, to improve the inadequate natural gas strategic planning in our country.