VALUACIÓN DE PROYECTOS PARA EMPRESAS EN AMBIENTES DE ALTA VOLATILIDAD: EL CASO DE UNA EMPRESA MEXICANA DEDICADA A LA EXTRACCIÓN DE PLATA EN EL ESTADO DE ZACATECAS (2004-2010).

Abstract

In the 70`s, the analysis options was developed which, later, would give way to real options method, this is an alternative method to prevent bugs in traditional methods for valuating investment projects. In the beginning the real options method was applied to non-financial or real assets, was subsequently used as an alternative to traditional methods for evaluate investment projects, and its main characteristic is to incorporate flexibility and uncertainty as factors that add value to the project. The aim of this research is to demonstrate that real options are a good method to value the investment project of a silver extraction mine firm, because this method provides a monetary value on planning flexibility decisions, and therefore to measure more accurately the risk faced by investors. For this work we used mining Peñoles data from March 31, 2000 to September 30, 2010. Then there was made a 5-year cash flows forecast, as it is the time required to observe the results of the investment project. Using tools as an ARMA econometric model, and then to use the Monte Carlo simulation method to calculate the real options value. Favorable results in this research were obtained, because real options proved to be a good method for valuing investment projects for companies in high volatility environments.