DISPONIBILIDAD DEL AGUA Y RIESGO HIDROLÓGICO EN LOS ESCURRIMIENTOS DE LA CUENCA DEL RÍO COPALITA, CON UN MODELO ESTOCÁSTICO

Abstract

In this thesis develops the construction of a stochastic model for the analysis of synthetic runoff in the watershed of Rio Copalita. The synthetic runoff were used for analysis of uncertainty in water management in the watershed using the WEAP management model for the watershed of Rio Copalita. As an example of this analysis was created a scenario in which to evaluate the water supply for environmental requirements in the weather stations of San Miguel Suchixtepec, Pluma Hidalgo and San Francisco Ozolotepec, and hydrometric station La Hamaca. The software used for the construction of the stochastic model is The Stochastic Analysis Modeling and Simulation 2009 (SAMS 2009), which is software that was developed at Colorado State University. The input data cover a period of 32 years, from 1962 to 1993. This model was used to generate synthetic runoff 1.000 series, each series with a period of 32 years. A statistical analysis was realized to the annual average of 1:000 generated series. From this analysis there were selected 10 representative series, which include different hydrological conditions: severe and moderate Drought, normal conditions, abundant extreme and moderate conditions. The results show that a recurrence period of 8 years, supply problems can arise.