MODELO BIOECONÓMICO PARA EL ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO DEL CULTIVO INTENSIVO DE CAMARÓN BLANCO (Litopenaeus vannamei)

Abstract

A bioeconomic model was developed to assess the risk associated with intensive production of whiteleg shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei). The model was calibrated using databases from producers in the State of Nayarit, which incorporated 86 cases (ponds), of which 49 were affected by white spot disease. The bioeconomic model integrated four submodels considering biological, environmental, management, technological, and economic variables. Risk was evaluated using “return per unit risk”. Alternative management schemes, in terms management variables were analyzed. Sensitivity analysis determined the importance of variables and parameters. The highest production of shrimp and profit were obtained by using small ponds, early start of aeration, and maximum stocking density and duration of cultivation (best management scheme). In terms of annual production and economic benefits after taxes, using the best management scheme produced 20,500 kg ha–1, profits about MX$ 267,000 ha–1 and benefit/cost ratio was about 1.31 for normal operations; 13,700 kg ha–1, MX$ 16,200 ha–1 and benefit/cost ratio about 1.04 when the disease affected winter production; and 17,600 kg ha–1, profits about MX$ 125,300 ha-1 and benefit/cost ratio about 1.15 when affecting summer production. We found that, to guarantee obtaining profits (with 95% confidence for normal operations), at least 43.07% of the installed production capacity should be used, 60.38% when the disease was present during winter, and 61.97% when the disease was present during summer. We observed that the disease is a factor that consistently increased risk and that risk can be reduced by improving management or increasing the size of the farm. Sensitivity analysis indicates that, dissolved oxygen is the main risk factor, and starting time of aeration is the main instrument to control and reduce risk. We conclude that risk assessment of intensive production of Litopenaeus vannamei was successfully achieved.